I own or have been in and out of all of these, together they provide another piece of data on the economic activity/financial health puzzle, both domestic and overseas. As I have always said in class, there is the news and then the reaction to it (which often tells more than the news itself does). This time, I am going to stick my neck out and make some predictions. These are not recommendations, I am not sure yet if I am going to involved at all, for you it should be more of a learning exercise (do not do as I do!). So watch along and raise questions if you wish.
Monday AM, Exxon, E of $1.62 on Revenues of $99.11 B, stock price up 8% for January, Chevron disappointed on Friday, will trade with oil/Egypt, methinks it doesn’t go much higher.
Monday PM, Baidu, E of $0.45 on R of $ 362.3M, once a real highflier, subsided after 4-1 split last year, earnings will be good, stock is volatile, stay away.
UPS, Tuesday AM, E of 1.09 on R of $9.68B, year-over-year increase in E, decrease in R, price bouncing in the low 70s for the last 5 weeks, GDP number probably had something to do with it breaking the 50-day MA on Friday. Earnings will probably be good, holiday season etc, the reaction to the news is key. Wait till later in the day/week for a more reliable read.
Broadcom, Tuesday PM, E of $0.74 on R of $1.9 B, mobile space, growing strongly, at the 50-day, a little lower and I am all over it.
Wednesday PM. Meritage, MTH, $-0.04 on $ 206.11 M, profitable last 3 quarters, I see little upside here.
Mastercard, Thursday AM, E of $3.04 on R of $1.42, trading with the financials, see BIDU above.
Las Vegas Sands, Thursday PM, E of $0.39 on R of $2.07 B, Macao, has been weak for awhile, since touching $50 early January, only up 20 times since March 2009. I suspect it pops around earnings.
Friday AM, the monthly employment parade. GDP numbers and the reaction to them suggests expectations are too high, will have to wait to see if the sell-off happens before or after the announcement. Institutions are traders, which of the duelling algorithmic programs will prevail?
ADDENDUM: 6PM Sunday. Everywhere I look, people are saying the long awaited correction is upon us. The contrarian in me wonders how that is going to happen when so many people expecting it!