Weekend temperature taking…

1. From Bespoke (here) comes the statistic that the earnings “beat” rate of 60% for the current (almost over) quarter is the lowest since this bull market began two ago.  Put that in the worrisome column along with that commodity puke going on globally.

2. You probably read all about the two surveys — payroll survey for the jobs number and household survey for the unemployment rate. According the former the number of jobs increased 244K and according to the latter the number of unemployed also increased, so the unemployment rate ticked up to 9%. Such confusion is why direction of macro data is usually more than enough information.

3. While silver’s rise and fall has been quite dramatic, the decline in oil, a much bigger market is almost as severe and speaks more directly to risk being taken off the table (along with the flight to long-term treasuries). The key question here is whether this will continue after a bounce.  At least some of the huge volume in SLV May call at various strikes over the last couple of days suggests to me that short-term traders are playing it that way.  I am content to give google a few more days. As well as the old reliable VIX trade.

4. My reliably favorite bear for the last several months apparently capitulated and turned bullish recently.

5. Retailers report earnings this coming week, Macy’s, Kohls, Nordstroms, Abercrombie among them.  Several  have run up a lot, ANF in particular. Along with the financials, consumer retail is what I have been most reluctant to own for the last several months, so I suppose I will look for short opportunities if the proverbial May lid is put on this market.

Advertisements