An email today asks how I feel about AMLN having sold it 2 days and 30% below where it is now. The obvious answer is NOT HAPPY (as with GLD). This move in AMLN is not about next week’s earnings, it is about longer-term earnings but the conference call should provide some more information. Buy the rumor and sell the news is how I have always operated. What I am learning to do is that it is always possible to buy things back if you get out too early. And, I did nibble at GMCR in the morning.
The current market mood is apparently to buy both the rumor and the news, regardless of whether it is good or bad (see earlier post of today). This is not something that is natural for me. If you’re reading, you know I have been out of sync and struggling to find reasons for bullishness.
All I can say is that if this is a real bull market, then there will be time to get in. Markets that don’t let you in, like the current one don’t inspire confidence. If this is not a real bull market, you don’t want in anyway. (See the earlier post about people being woefully underinvested).
The email also mentions feeling like “swimming with sharks.” That is exactly what trading markets the last couple of years have felt like. To keep that analogy going, if you can get out of the water with all your limbs intact and some profits to show, you are doing well.
Re: FB, an AP story from someone who actually appears to have read the SEC filing rather than scan for bullet points reported that $4.39 per user was what FB reported in terms of revenues. Compare that with $7 that Yahoo makes, the $10 that AOL did and the $30 that Google makes and that takes some of the luster of the IPO. Methinks that metric will be what analysts will be using to estimate FB’s valuations if they are not doing it already. Clearly people go there to network not to shop, and changes to this number there will drive FB’s valuations over time. I already said that the stock will pop due to the limited supply and will eventually become a must own once its price settles down sometime this summer.
On the earnings front, WYNN drops despite light revenue good earnings versus LVS (good revenue, light earnings), LVS, VRTX pops and APKT gets clobbered for missing numbers even though it had already said it would. I have liked the last two firms for awhile and sadly APKT is rapidly becoming a value stock.