The 3-day quiet last week and the market’s ho-hum response to the news of the deal on Thursday suggested that a sell-off was coming, even before Friday morning’s negative news. On Friday, the VIX popped 11%, SPY option volume was through the roof as people reached for puts.
It makes sense for the troika to really put the screws on Greece to send a signal to the other countries waiting for their turn. Chances are that Sunday night’s vote in Greece will pass. A favorable vote merely kicks the can down the road. I have no idea whether markets will continue their sell-off next week or not. A pop to shock the put-buyers would not surprise me at all. In my view, the HFT’s have done a good job of putting it to the shorts for the last few weeks. Given this binary situation, one way to manage risk is to not have any. Cash is also a position.