One-sided or two-sided?

Bearish statements everywhere  you look- decided to list them….

  • a) election affects the ratio of taxes up: spending down. Expectations of 1:3 now perhaps 1:2.
  • b) Apple selling is to lock in gains before capital gains taxes hit the ceiling (there isn’t one).
  • c) GDP will decline 1% to zero growth, maybe even recession nears.
  • d) S&P drops 10-15% from current levels.
  • e) Elliott Wave 5, sightings of Demark 13 counts, three peaks and a domed house.

The usual suspects, Faber, Gross, DeMark, Lefcovich….Little of this is new news, much of it has been known for a while. What does it say about the EMH that markets have shrugged off all these concerns and are now exhibiting some worry? Are they and for how long ?  Academics say Markov process and practitioners say attention span of a two-year old!  Will there be a barrage of downward earnings revisions from analysts to offset the positive calendar seasonality?

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s