For those of us (you) currently concerned with global macro trends, KKR’s periodic report (click here), is a must read. I will read it slowly on the plane tomorrow, but FWIW, my quick take.
I agree with most of their secular trends– less regulation, more fiscal than monetary stimulus, less trade and more domestic. These are fairly obvious themes, but the process by which they arrive at these conclusions is what students should pay attention to. Of equal interest should be how they translate this global macro analysis into short and long investment recommendations and you should admire the boldness with which they make them (Note to the PGP networth folks who sent me something recently- this is what some of you could aspire to!)
I particularly liked their discussion of credit markets, and their pronouncements on the interplay between emerging market currencies, credit and the “bumpier” bottoming process in those regions. There is much for readers from emerging markets where I now reside. I was a bit surprised at their bullishness on the US dollar, but who am I to argue with a 40-year veteran firm in the private equity space with tens of billions of dollars to invest globally.
It is long, thorough and, as usual quite well done. Thanks Tim.